Coalition

The Lokpal Bill in Parliament – passes the Lok Sabha, fails in the Rajya Sabha

All through the progress of the Lokpal debate that happened this year, there was a strong feeling – can such a law ever come to pass ? Can a law which has been pushed for 43 years now actually come into force, even if it was not as strong as one would have wished ? As time moved on from April, when the issue came to national prominence, the discussion started getting more focused. But it was the agitation in August that seemed to do the impossible, create a tidal wave of public (and media) pressure that pressured the Government to seem to do something, and it gave a commitment to pass a Lokpal Bill with certain characteristics. But, is it really possible that any political party in India will be serious about the Lokpal ? Think about it – the Lokpal desires to set in place an independent investigating authority that will investigate corruption (and typically, corruption is only associated with the ruling Government machinery and the bureaucracy).
Now, the economics of politics in India is simple. They are almost all in it for the money and influence; and there is no money to be made from the Government unless you have a babu (or multiples babus) who show the path, partake in the corruption, or let it happen and do not raise any objection. So, when you talk about politicians being corrupt, that is not possible without the involvement of the official machinery, and we are asking the Government and other political parties to create an outside agency that seeks to throttle this money making ability. Politicians in India are smart, and they are not about to commit suicide.
So why did the political class agree to setup a Lokpal in August ? Well, they saw a huge wave of anger in terms of a public out to apparently protest wide-spread corruption, and saw that this anger could not be countered by any more denials – instead, the usual method of delay has to be used. Delay is the most potent political weapon that the political class has, to be used for any major controversy, such as the Lokpal issue, or the Telangana issue (which is no longer front page news, and hence is not worthy of needing an immediate resolution).
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The Government backs down on FDI – a flawed approach

The Congress has done it again. For many months now, the Government has been publicly criticized for not taking any initiatives, for causing a paralysis that is slowing the process for reform in the country and combined with the harsh interest rates being set by the RBI (in order to try and fight inflation, without taking any measures on the supply side front), slowly bringing the rate of growth in the economy down. Recent reports speak of reduction in growth rates of industrial production, along with an outflow of money as major Indian businesses invest abroad in light of a reduced level of confidence in the Indian economy. This is combined with a higher level of revenue and decreased tax receipts which are causing Pranab Mukherjee to increase deficit levels and run out of money for the various welfare schemes that the Congress believes is necessary for its survival.
No Government can continue like this for very long, and when combined with the reduced public confidence following the agitation over the Lokpal Bill, the Government has to show it is dedicated to growth; and for this, some steps of reform are needed to be advocated. So, the Government decided to show that it is focused on reform and not stuck on any paralysis, and thus came the Cabinet decision to allow FDI in multi-brand retail to 51%, effectively allowing the major international retailers to come into the country. This is a decision that has been contested for a long time, since the fear of letting large retailers such as Walmart into the country is that they will be so powerful that they will put the local retailers out of business, and there are a large number of retailers and people dependent on them, which in turn means that there is a political cost.
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Early trends in the polls – Congress in a leading position, but not really ahead

At this point, the trends in all the regional elections are pretty clear, and some of the expectations are coming true. The states which went to elections were: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Pondicherry. The results in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu were the ones which were most eagerly awaited, because of the implications of these on national parties. And the results did not disappoint, since the outcome of the elections have shaken up many politicians, with the most deep impact on the Left Front which lost its decades old bastion of West Bengal, and also seems to be losing in Kerala, thus relegating it to a non-entity. What happens to the leadership of Prakash Karat may be an interesting side-story. The Communist Front will lose all its political powers after this election, but the gainer is not the Congress. Here is a more state by state analysis.

West Bengal: The Left Front in the state, who have been in power for the past so many decades (since 1977) have finally lost by a huge margin to the firebrand Mamta Banerjee. This was somewhat expected, although the margin of victory shows how the Left has been sidelined. This is even more incredible since the Left has a cadre based organization which was expected to use its measures such as force and organization to get people to vote on its side. However, the lack of development, faulty policies by the Left, and many misdeeds of the Left cadre have pushed the people to vote in enough numbers for Mamta Banerjee. The Congress also wins, but is mostly along for the ride by virtue of being coalition partners. The Congress would have been hoping for an election where Mamta does not have a majority of her own, but it seems likely that Mamta will get to that position, which puts her in an incredibly strong position in the state, and continues with her ability to even push her weight around in the center. The Left will have to wait for quite some time to see whether it can even think of a comeback.
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