Coalition

Trying to spin up some froth – putting in the name of PA Sangma as the Presidential candidate

Politics is a very strange game. Just a couple of months back, there was a lot of debate over the political weakness of the UPA Government, and how the Congress is being tormented by its allies. It was unable to pass any major reform due to opposition from some of its allies, and the biggest problem was likely to be that of getting its candidate elected for the President of India. This was compounded by the meetings (usually of some law which the center needed to pass) where the state Chief Ministers used to be present, and most of them would be opposing some law or the other, presenting a united front that seems to portray that power is passing to the states. Now, some of that still remains true, and the allies of the Congress still needle the Congress over issues and over the various laws that the Congress wants to pass. The major reform bills that the Congress would want to pass to portray that there is no paralysis are all in limbo, unable to get clearance from allies, and the Congress does not seem to have the political will or strength to get the allies in line.
However, one major exception to this is the election for President. The Congress sees this as a major point in the political arena and has done all the negotiation with its allies to get the support. The Congress does not have the necessary strength to get the President elected on the basis of their own strength, and needed the support of its allies. And it looks like enough negotiation has gone on to get the required support, with the selection of candidates who are not likely to cause offense to anyone and make it easier to get support from allies and others. And of course, except for Mamta Banerjee, everybody of the others have given the Congress enough ammunition to get pressure piled on them, with the CBI having cases against every leader of the political spectrum (mostly on the basis of disproportionate assets or some kind of scams).
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The Lokpal Bill in Parliament – passes the Lok Sabha, fails in the Rajya Sabha

All through the progress of the Lokpal debate that happened this year, there was a strong feeling – can such a law ever come to pass ? Can a law which has been pushed for 43 years now actually come into force, even if it was not as strong as one would have wished ? As time moved on from April, when the issue came to national prominence, the discussion started getting more focused. But it was the agitation in August that seemed to do the impossible, create a tidal wave of public (and media) pressure that pressured the Government to seem to do something, and it gave a commitment to pass a Lokpal Bill with certain characteristics. But, is it really possible that any political party in India will be serious about the Lokpal ? Think about it – the Lokpal desires to set in place an independent investigating authority that will investigate corruption (and typically, corruption is only associated with the ruling Government machinery and the bureaucracy).
Now, the economics of politics in India is simple. They are almost all in it for the money and influence; and there is no money to be made from the Government unless you have a babu (or multiples babus) who show the path, partake in the corruption, or let it happen and do not raise any objection. So, when you talk about politicians being corrupt, that is not possible without the involvement of the official machinery, and we are asking the Government and other political parties to create an outside agency that seeks to throttle this money making ability. Politicians in India are smart, and they are not about to commit suicide.
So why did the political class agree to setup a Lokpal in August ? Well, they saw a huge wave of anger in terms of a public out to apparently protest wide-spread corruption, and saw that this anger could not be countered by any more denials – instead, the usual method of delay has to be used. Delay is the most potent political weapon that the political class has, to be used for any major controversy, such as the Lokpal issue, or the Telangana issue (which is no longer front page news, and hence is not worthy of needing an immediate resolution).
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The Government backs down on FDI – a flawed approach

The Congress has done it again. For many months now, the Government has been publicly criticized for not taking any initiatives, for causing a paralysis that is slowing the process for reform in the country and combined with the harsh interest rates being set by the RBI (in order to try and fight inflation, without taking any measures on the supply side front), slowly bringing the rate of growth in the economy down. Recent reports speak of reduction in growth rates of industrial production, along with an outflow of money as major Indian businesses invest abroad in light of a reduced level of confidence in the Indian economy. This is combined with a higher level of revenue and decreased tax receipts which are causing Pranab Mukherjee to increase deficit levels and run out of money for the various welfare schemes that the Congress believes is necessary for its survival.
No Government can continue like this for very long, and when combined with the reduced public confidence following the agitation over the Lokpal Bill, the Government has to show it is dedicated to growth; and for this, some steps of reform are needed to be advocated. So, the Government decided to show that it is focused on reform and not stuck on any paralysis, and thus came the Cabinet decision to allow FDI in multi-brand retail to 51%, effectively allowing the major international retailers to come into the country. This is a decision that has been contested for a long time, since the fear of letting large retailers such as Walmart into the country is that they will be so powerful that they will put the local retailers out of business, and there are a large number of retailers and people dependent on them, which in turn means that there is a political cost.
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