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Aam Aadmi party and the Delhi Government




There is an interesting set of politics that is happening in Delhi right now. After the elections on 4th December 2013, one of the biggest surprises was the decimation of the Congress in Delhi, with a large chunk of that vote getting passed onto the AAP (and in what must be upsetting for Maywati, the vote share of the BSP was also halved, with the vote share of the AAP gaining from this fall). And finally the AAP almost caught up with the BJP. However, at the end, no party is in a position to form the Government with the number of unattached numbers being very low; with such low numbers, you cannot any of the parties being in a position on its own. Conventional wisdom is that the Congress cannot support the AAP or the BJP, and none of them can support any either party. So, there would be a re-election right ?
Well, now we need to hold on. For any party, fighting another election (clubbed with the Lok Sabha) is a matter of some concern. The Congress would be worried about whether the AAP can actually pick up more vote share (and the AAP can easily gobble up the Congress base with the general disgust for the Congress that is prevalent right now). The BJP, although hopeful, would still be in a state of shock about how close the AAP came and might not be inclined to want to go in for another election in Delhi. And as for the AAP, it would not be sure whether it could pull off such a victory again; people’s anger can be short-term.
With the election not throwing up any clear winner, the BJP decided that it would try to look honorable and did not try to form the Government. It was now the turn of the AAP, and this is where the Congress and the BJP would see a chance. So you have both parties challenging the AAP to do good for the people as it promised, and form the Government; and for good measure, said that they would provide construction opposition (BJP) or unconditional support (Congress).

Now, I would not think that either Kejriwal or the AAP are stupid – unconditional support just means that you there is support, but it can be removed anytime. They would have worked out that the people might not be happy with the Congress supporting the AAP, and it would be suicidal to take support of a party which can withdraw support any time based on its perception of an improvement in its fortunes.
So, the AAP has done something that I consider as close to brilliant. The AAP is trying to lock in the Congress and the BJP into agreeing to support many of the key matters in the AAP manifesto rather than just providing a support that can be removed. So there is the Jan Lokpal, the Audit of power, schools and education, and many others. If the Congress and BJP reject these conditions, then the AAP can claim that they cannot take the support of parties that are opposed to key AAP promises, and would back away from forming the Government. And if the Congress and/or the BJP agrees, then they are locked in (in written) to many of the critical items in the AAP manifesto, and might find it hard to back down over these issues.




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