Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh replaced, the Jagan effect ?

Andhra Pradesh has been a big state for the Congress party for the past many years, providing the party with a stable Government and also with a big chunk of Lok Sabha seats (that in turn have been a big factor in the Congress remaining in power in the center now for more than 6 years). However, ever since the tragic death of YSR in a helicopter crash, the state has no longer remained as stable as it was. In the last 1 year, the controversy over the Telangana issue seemed to have spiralled out of the control of the Congress Government, and then the knee-jerk reaction by the Union Government that it was agreeable to the formation of a separate state of Telangana seemed to push the situation even more towards making the state unstable in terms of the Congress. After all, for all the issue about the state of Telangana, the push was by the TRS, not by the Congress. Further, there was a backlash in the other parts of Andhra towards this push for separation by Telangana (and this also included the status of Hyderabad, which is included in the territory of Telangana). The Congress managed to contain this after some weeks of controversy by setting up a commission to debate and then come up with a set of recommendations.
And of course there was the Jagan effect. The Congress MP, Jaganmohan Reddy, the son of the departed YSR, expected that he would become the Chief Minister of the state (after all, he had the resources, his father was loyal to the Congress, Jagan had a lot of support by the MLA’s – reasons enough that he expected the support of the Congress). And yet, no doubt due to suspicion about his motives, and because the Congress High Command did not like being pushed like this, the Chief Ministership was given to a person who was not really expected to do much – Mr. K. Rosaiah. He was never expected to be more than a temporary holder of the post, although he did hold on for more than expected. One of his briefs would have been about keeping in Jagan in control, and preventing him from having a negative influence on the politics of Andhra Congress.

And yet the Jagan ‘effect’ refused to go away. He never did acknowledge Rosaiah as the Chief Minister of the state, and treated any advice or suggestions from the Chief Minister with contempt. So, when the Chief Minister adviced against the political yatras of Jagan, there was no acknowledgement of the advise and it was totally ignored. The failure of the leadership to take action against Jagan only emboldened him, and caused his to ratchet his level of defiance. All this caused a disappointment in the leadership of Rosaiah, and served to show that more active steps needed to be taken to reduce the support level of Jagan, and at the same time, not give him a easy reason to split from the party (any strong step against him could be used as a reason to rally supporters and portray this as an action against supporters of YSR).
Now, the Congress is trying a new tactic. The High Command asked Rosiah to step down, and has instead tried to take the battle to the Jagan camp, having selected a new leader (N Kiran Kumar Reddy) who was close to YSR. This helps in projecting that the wishes of the late YSR will be respected (and the new Chief Minister is also projecting the need to carry forward the human policies of YSR). At the same time, more people close to Jagan will be sought to be weaned away, and there are attacks on him by people who are important and not yet the High Command (such as Jaipal Reddy). All this is sought to chip away at his support, in the meantime, Jagan has also carried on the attack, targeting the failure of Rahul Gandhi to do anything in Bihar. The projection is that right now, Jagan will eventually separate from the Congress, but if the Congress gets it way, without much of a support base among the Congress in Andhra.

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