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WHAT WENT WRONG FOR BJP




What went wrong for BJP

The results of Lok sabha elections are out and it clearly showed the next government structure at one look unlike many people anticipitated.The speculation of hung parliament with no clear one party with majority and regional parties playing imp’ortant role got over in a flash.

People of india sang “jai ho!” and  snubbed “bhay ho.!” The perseverance of Dr. Manmohan singh over the Nuclear deal in the interest of the nation was valued more than CPM’s withdrawing of support again in the interest of nation! This elections, in a way were very unique and brought smiles,sorrow,hopes and not to forget a great deal of speculation.!

Is it the end of caste based regional politics,or start of development oriented mentality of the voter.? Is rahul gandhi future PM,or is he now experienced enough to head the govt now.? Has our voters have become  matured now by going for nitish kumar and not for lalu,Mamta banerjee instead of budhadeb bhatacharya,shiela dikshit,Shivraj chauhan etc etc..The answer would be : Its too premature to judge on the basis of this elections all the above parameters.

The  reasons for unexpected phenomenal growth of Congress party in this elections are not entirely related.Where at some points they have scored on merit basis while at some other,their opposition parties misfired.! Congress’s alliances proved to be most effective in the end.!

But the interesting thing to understand is the reasons which led to the downfall of BJP.! The arithmetic,astrolgers,media,exit polls were in any case never in the favour of them but no body actually expected them to perform so poorly.They claimed to get over 160 lok sabha seats but only managed to decrease their count by 20 and settled for 118.! By the time the safron brigade started the analysis of this debacle ,blame game within the NDA brought another shock for the party! It could be populating Modi’s future PM candidature,attacking Dr.manmohan singh personally as a weal PM,losing out key alliances..the speculations are everywhere.! But i think there are several factors which contributed for this dismal performance of the hindu nationalist party.

·         BJP campaign never begin with a promising note of offering an alternative government with a difference. There were issues with the current government,infact many disappointments as far as public hopes were considered but BJP did not highlighted those effectively.

·         Economic Recession performed the role of an alibi for UPA govt for the poor economic conditions and job losses.As a result,many urban middle class voters which had always been BJP’s key contributers shifted to congress because they thought of continuity and stability at this time and to some extent they had more faith in Dr.manmohan singh and P.chidambaram than their BJP alternatives.

·         In the past 5 years,congress made a better connection with the rural india than BJP.The farm loan waiver,bharat nirman praogramme connected with the farmers.They started with 2.5% growth of agriculture sector in 2004 but managed to increase it to 5.5%.That doesn’t mean that some kind of revolution was brough in rural india but congress did well to balance between urban infrastructure plans and rural india development.

·         Varun gandhi may have won the seat from PILIBHIT but brought a lot of negative publicity for the party in the rest of the country.It gave an oppurtunity to the opposition to play the “secular” card once again term the BJP as communal.This speech by varun gandhi did free publicity for congress amongst the minorities.The urban voters want development and sound economic policies at this crucial economic times and hence they just moved away from BJP and not to forget it influenced the decisions of millions of first time voters against BJP.

·         Attacking Dr.manmohan singh personally as a weak PM persistently didnot go well with the voters.There are lot of serious admirers of his soberness and tranquility and strong take of congress govt after 26/11 increased his stature considerably among those who considered him weak.

·         BJP forgot one of the most crucial state of india as far as arithmetic of elections goes—UP.They never concenterated much on this land which is undoubtedly was their “garh” in the 90’s.From 57 seats in ’98 to just 8 in ’09 clearly shows how they lost the plot in UP.Where with the mass appeal and charismatic nature,RAHUL GANDHI mesmerised the UP voters and did for congress one thing which no one had imagined in the past 25 years!  Congress got 23 seats in UP.An unimaginable feat.! This success could be attributed to internal feud within the SP and the induction of kalyan singh in SP and losing out considerable amount of muslim votes to congress.

·         The state of RAJASTHAN where a tough battle between the BJP and congress was expected turned out to be a one sided battle.! Ashok gehlot swept the whole state and leaving just 4 seats for BJP.They lost the assembly elections here last year and it seems people didnt accepted their governance as per their liking.

·         In gujrat,MP,jharkhand,Karnataka,Maharashta,Bjp did well like always but that room for improvement which they were expecting this time to happen failed.! Congress gained in these states which can be attributed to some of the above mentioned reasons.

·         The southern states of Tamil nadu,Andhra pradesh,Kerala where there is no BJP presence,Congress did exceptionally well individually in AP and with DMK alliance in TN.!

The allaince with mamta bannerjee in WB at the crucial movement by congress resulted in a shock for the CPM.! But ultimately,BJP’s non-presence in these states and virtually no alliance resulted in a widening gap betwwen the two biggest national parties.

 

The BJP lost the plot in Punjab,haryana,Arunachal pradesh,orissa also on similar lines where sometimes their allainces failed or else they just could not bulid a positive image in voter’s mind.

 

The upper caste hindu brahmins still continues to support to BJP but it needs to understand the scale of this country.It needs to extend its appeal beyond the  top leg of the varnas.If they believe in indian nationalism and not in hindu nationalism,then they have to come forward with the right people to propagate this message in the most positive manner it could be.

They have to build themselves in the southern states and come up with some strong allainces as we have seen some of the allies like BJD going away from them and JDU,akali dal criticising them openly.

If they  are against minorities appeasement then they have to prove to the minorities also that they dont appease majority also.! By going with only one caste and religion a long term political ambition can never be fulfilled in a country like india.BJP needs to categorize key states where they can do fairly better than this time,states like UP,rajasthan and they have to start the work right now.

We can not ignore or isolate BJP as of now.They are strong contender which they have showed the congress in the past and they keep the capability to do in the future also.

But lot of introspection is required for them and decisive actions to be performed in near future for its resurrection.

RAJAT ARORA

21-MAY-2009

01:18 AM

 

 




10 comments to WHAT WENT WRONG FOR BJP

  • Good article. One does not know whether the BJP will actually do the required introspection and come up with better policies.
    They were too negative in this campaign without clear promises, and lost out almost everywhere.

  • kumar

    Very convincing article having all points covered.Over confidence ,arrogance ,lack of proper agenda,negative campaign,conflicting views of their leaders,lack of presence of leaaders like ? pramod mahajan.Times and peoples’minds are changing fast and they cannot be taken for granted.With media coverage every politician comes under scanner

  • raj

    pls remember its not abt ppl didn’t vote for bjp. actually, ppl didn’t like both congress and bjp, whereas atleast bjp was in favour. in 2004, at some places, ppl challenged that none of their divison voted for congress, but the voting machine recorded as congress vote eventhough you press the button to vote for any other parties; finally it had been proved and re-election happened only on few places. it has to be understood that the election commisioner is in favour of congress, congress govt was at the central, our president pratheepa also got onto this post only by sonia.
    In andhra, on the day of counting, officers realised the keys are missing to open the hall containing all voting machines and securities broke the doors to enter the counting machine, which might’ve been mis-used until that day. In one of the constituency in TamilNadu, on the election day eve, collector announced that 53% of voting recorded, whereas at 9pm, election commisioner announced that 69% votes were recorded on that constituency. howcome 16% of votes recorded between 5pm and 9pm? can’t we imagine wht might’ve happened?

  • prabhu

    pls remember that all senior congress party leaders (rajesh pilot, madhav schindia, etc) died suspiciously and most of the family members of priyanka’s husband(Robert) died suspiciously. list as follows:
    1) priyanka’s father-in-law hanged himself to death,
    2) sister of priyanka’s husband killed in road accident,
    3) brother of priyanka’s husband killed,
    4) some reports came as rahul raped a girl in UP and the reports vanished within few days due to sonia,
    5) rahul got onto custody in abroad airport along with his girlfriend for having 200,000$ of illegal money, etc and released due to our prime minister.

    as long as sonia’s family acting on behalf of italy, poor bjp can’t do much to win the elections as the whole nation is under the hands of sonia’s family.

  • Vinod

    BJP lost because it does not gave India any viable alternative in any sector of life.

    While the writer has given Rahul Gandhi the crown of being charismatic leader; I want to ask, what are his views on nuclear program and weapons, education, urban and rural development, why people are migrating from villages to the cities, women reservation bill, etc. Congress’ and Rahul’s family are only interested in looking after their own interest.

    During Congress rule, the corruption is staggering in rural road development program which was implemented under employment guaranty program (or with such like sounding name). Under Indra Vikas Yojna, rural people were directly given money which they spent mostly on drinking and other vices rather than constructing home for themselves. This money was given to them after the Surpunch and Bank employees had taken 25% from each of them. This is done as a rule rather than exception. Some people have received the money twice for doing same thing under the same program. If this is not bribing for vote by mismanaging tax payers money than what is the definition of bribing, please tell me. About increase in farm output, people must remember that for the last 6 years the monsoon has been normal throughout India. Compare the case with when BJP was in power for 6 years, no normal monsoon for the first 5 years, and when in the final year when the forecast of monsoon was “normal”, they called for an early election and lost due to excessive negative campaign by the opposition. Remember that the inflation was lowest at that time (2004), the prices of food was at the lowest as per purchasing parity while taking into account the value of Rupees. In Congress rule, the employment and rumination decreased in the real terms as well as due to inflation. Even though the inflation increased, the GDP shrank. About lone waiver program, can the writer please clarify who benefited from this exercise? The nationalized banks benefited not the farmers; who were still committing suicide even after the program was termed successful by the subservient media which has vested interest in the Congress governments. The rural people in need of to be saved from the clutches of small money lenders who take their valuables as ransom and give them lone at very high interest rates. Throughout the Congress rule since independence the Highway were laid at a staggering pace on 11 KM a year and please compare this with BJP’s when highways were laid at a pace of 11 KM a day.

    Now let’s talk about what went wrong with BJP’s poll performance. The whole section of media is subservient to the congress and the Left. The nuclear agreement with America will cost us tax payers the most as it is simply very costly at 20 lakh crorrers which will give us mere 5% to 8% of the total energy requirements of the country at the most for next 20 years. After that the world uranium supply will dry out as well as oil supply and whole world will be looking for alternatives. I have tried to meet political leadership and even written to some with my suggestion of a new alternative but I did not get any response, (that is another story altogether.) BJP did not put forward any new suggestion in this regard. BJP did not highlight the number of riots that has taken place during the reigns of congress in Merrut, Bhopal, Varanashi, etc. in the 50’s, 60’, and 70’s; the report of which has never seen the light of the day. Who were responsible for those riots? Look at the situation in Assam, the Bangladeshi Muslims’ are making the local people minority. The congress government there has formulated laws about citizenship which are contrary to the constitution of the country. No one calls congress communal for that. About Rajasthan, the Gujjars who are above the schedule casts wants reservation within the frame work of schedule casts category. For this they played havoc with the entire state and congress promised but will it fulfill their desire without starting another upheaval in the state.

  • These are all interesting points, with some of them being valid. However, the BJP needs to do a lot of introspection to figure out why they were left behind. The BJP was not able to raise these points effectively, as well as promise a good future.

  • Aksel Sundström

    Well, at least the representation of female MLA’s has reached an all-high at 59 representatives out of the total 543.
    What is interesting is the debate to come over wether a quota for women in lok sabha (lower house of the Parliament of India) will see the light of day during this five-year period.
    I also await the reservation acts of 50 per cent at PRI level in more states being implemented, such as Himachal adn Rajasthan. Certainly this development has been interesting in Bihar with 70400 female politicians:
    http://www.fria.nu/artikel/79736

    Aksel Sundström, Sweden

  • charan gill

    RSS has already declared that there is nothing wrong in modi or vrun,that they will not change their hate discourse, that they do not want BJP to be a B team of congress.So we should not hope that they will stop thinking mischief.The positive aspect for the sane people is the optimism generated by the highly positive verdict which needs to be harnessed by secular parties for building cadre required for countering militarized communally charged outfits.I think congress leaders are planning to do so but communists will take time as they are addressing other survival problems.

  • @vinod

    I empathize each and every word you said vinod.I myself is a strong supporter of BJP and was saying the same things which you said for BJP.One cannot do much about what congress did for buying votes and how they got media support.But one thing BJP has to accept that thay need to expand in southern and eastern states.They can not think of ruling the country only depending upon the alliances.This is one thing.Apart from that,the voter base is to be incresed from upper caste hindus to other castes and religions also.Congress has been successful to some extent in projecting BJP as coomunal.WE know the truth tah congress itself is the bigest communal party but ppl out dere in rural low cate region and south india are not aware of these facts.! They are the deciding factor.Urban voters dont decide the fate of the party.But i believe BJP will ponder some thoughts over it and definitely bounce back next time..The so called YOUNG-CONGRESS,SECULAR congress debate has to be ended only by showing the positive side of BJP and not only criticizing the negative of congress.

  • Nobody needs Advani as Prime Minister. And that is the major cause of their defeat.
    One more cause behind BJP’s defeat is Gandhi Parivar’s image in public. People want a young PM and there is no better option than Yuvraj(Rahul Gandhi)

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