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Global News: And the Hits just keep on comin’




Lee’s Dhaba

#fullpost{display:none;}Do not get suckered by rallies in the equity markets…the anchor is away, but not moored.  Below is a sampling of news globally, with my comments, noted.  Please tell me when you see a glimmer..and I don’t mean technical indicators…which industry is finding its feet…it still looks like a vast wasteland out there.

Airline crisis

Global airlines are heading into their worst business crisis for 50 years with carriers facing possible collapse, revenues tumbling and hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk, the industry body IATA said on Tuesday.

This forecast comes after a 60% reduction in fuel prices…there is something very wrong with this business model…they go bankrupt when their major cost component rises and they get killed when their major cost component falls dramatically – Lee

World Bank:  Developing economies to slow sharply

The World Bank’s 2009 Global Economic Prospects report projected that world growth will shrink to 0.9 percent next year from 2.5 percent in 2008 and warned that a long and deep global recession cannot be ruled out.

I would appreciate if the guys at the World Bank, IMF, BIS could send a copy of their economic forecasts to the Indian Government…our Ministry of Finance believes there will not be much impact on India and has provided a .6% of GDP stimulus package to weather this “Global ex-India” crisis – Lee

Sony Layoffs could portend wave of cuts in Asia

“It’s only really getting underway right now,” said Credit Suisse economist Joseph Lau. “It’s not likely to bottom out anytime within the next two to three quarters, so we’ll probably look at at least that much time in terms of further corporations restructuring their workforce and overall financial health.”

The problem with buying market share is:  you do not make profits when the going is good and you get killed when the market tanks.  Sony and Samsung are two incredibly hard working and innovative companies cursed with the stupidest financial managers on the planet – Lee

Asian Trade in “Free-Fall”

A blizzard of grim data this week points to a full-blown trade slump across Asia, confirming fears that the region’s strategy of export-led growth would backfire once the West buckled.

The saving grace for Asia is the foreign currency reserve kitty that countries have built up over the past few years.  When the slump ends (not if), these countries will recover faster…but they have to keep the savings intact and not blow them on currency defense in the short term – Lee

Diplomats reject Doha summit

Trade diplomats rejected proposals for a summit later this month, saying it was doomed to fail, in a rebuff to calls from world leaders to revive the stalled Doha Round of trade talks.

I thought these guys reported to the G-20 leaders…tail wagging the dog…or something else altogether? – Lee

Ex Bear Stearns chief says rumours killed Wall Street

“There’s no more Wall Street,” said 81-year-old Greenberg, who has worked on the ‘Street for the last 61 years. “That model just doesn’t work because it’s at the mercy of rumors.”

A great man, Ace Greenberg.  I grew up admiring his work habits and reading his short memos to subordinates, staff and colleagues.  Ace, please go enjoy your retirement; …this is embarrassing.  One more reason India should not allow an 81 year old man to become Prime Minister in 2009…Mr Advani, I implore you to make way – Lee




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